Week 11 picks

The Carolina Sports Guy Week 10 NFL Picks

There are many signs a football team is about to begin the search for a new coach. In fact even the most casual fan could pick out the correct answer to this multiple choice question:

The biggest sign an NFL team is looking for a new coach is:

A) The head coach allegedly beats up an assistant coach in training camp, the police are called in, an investigation goes on for months, rumors start swirling about said coach’s violent and abusive past and then he goes on national TV on game day and announces that the only time he has ever hit a woman is one time when he caught his ex-wife cheating on him.

B) The owner, not pleased with the team’s direction, decides that it would be wise to hire a consultant to come in and help his head coach through a scoring drought, calls a retirement home in Minnesota, asks if he can borrow their Bingo caller, brings said Bingo caller into town and a couple of weeks later has his GM tell the head coach that he is stripped of play-calling duties because the Bingo caller will now call plays and he’s pretty sure G-52 is a winner.

C) The owner invites two fans who are longtime season-ticket holders to his office to talk about the state of the team, tells them he’s sickened by the team’s performance, assures the two fans that he will make changes, fires the GM, then denies he fired the GM and finally has to listen to the head coach explain to the media that he really hasn’t been practicing his players that hard.

D) All of the above

The NFL coaching carousel is a rite of passage. Everyone that follows the sport knows that a coach’s job hinges on his won-loss record. But football folks also know that a marginally good coach can balance good seasons with bad seasons if he doesn’t go around making a mockery of his organization (see answer A) or if the owner hasn’t lost a complete sense of rationale (see answers B & C).

For the Carolina Panthers, John Fox has been the epitome of a marginally good coach who has balanced bad seasons with enough good seasons and high moments to keep his job.

Consider this: In 2002, Fox took over a 1-15 team and went 7-9 in his first season. Without a doubt, Fox was an infusion of freshness and his rookie season culminated in one of the biggest about faces in NFL history. Of course, Fox and the Panthers benefited from playing a last-place schedule thanks to their dismal campaign in 2001.

In his second year at the helm, Fox guided the Panthers to a surprising NFC Championship and a berth in the Super Bowl where they lost to the New England Patriots.

Playing a division-champion’s schedule following their 11-5 season in ‘03, the Panthers started 1-7 in 2004 before salvaging a 7-9 season.

In 2005 the Panthers, based on the previous season’s sub-.500 record, were awarded with a middle-of-the-road strength of schedule and parlayed that into an 11-5 record and their second playoff appearance under Fox.

A 7-9 record in 2007 followed an 8-8 season in 2006. Last season, the Panthers again won the NFC South under Fox and have seen their division-champion’s schedule turn into a 3-5 start in 2009.

Sunday, the Panthers were on the verge of the season’s biggest upset, having dominated unbeaten New Orleans in the first half. Suddenly, a 4-4 start seemed a reality. Then Fox happened. Or at least Fox and his coaching staff, for whom he is ultimately responsible, happened.

During the first half, the Saints had six possessions where they were faced with having to gain three to seven yards on third down. Once, they ran a swing pass to the right flat. On another occasion they went deep to Reggie Bush covered by Chris Gamble on the sideline. Four times they threw slants or short outs to the right side.

Trailing 17-6 during the first drive of the second half, the Saints faced a 3rd-and-3 at their own 27. The Panthers lined up eight in the box with man-to-man coverage on the outside and a lone safety deep.

I knew the Saints were looking for the quick slant. The guy pouring drinks at The Corner Bar knew the quick slant was coming. The three blind men playing the blues in front of The Superdome knew the quick slant was there. The Panthers had no clue.

The result: Brees hits Devery Henderson with a quick slant to the right, he slips behind the safety on the route and turns it into a 63-yard gain. On the next play Pierre Thomas scores on a 10-yard run and the extra point cut the lead to 17-13.

Later in the third quarter, after the Panthers pushed the lead to seven, the Saints had a 3rd-and-5 from their own 46. Guess what? They send Robert Meachem on a medium slant route on the right side which he turns into a 54-yard catch and run for a game-tying score.

At some point the Panthers should have anticipated the Saints were going to run a variation of a quick slant, isolating a Panther defender – likely Gamble – in one-on-one coverage.Yet, as the game wore on, the Saints continued to run that play and the Panthers made no changes to their defense to stop it.

Although turnovers doomed the Panthers chance to rally once the Saints took the lead, it was poor management of game situations that landed the Panthers behind the proverbial eight-ball. John Fox gets praise for being a player’s coach and is reportedly very calm under pressure. As for X’s and O’s he’s only marginally good and a record like that will eventually come back to haunt an NFL coach.

Last week The Carolina Sports Guy was John Fox-like with a marginal 5-6-1 record against the spread. But the Panthers, who I guaranteed would beat the spread, made me a winner against my guest prognosticator, Ted Prestwood.

Ted, who was bandwagonning the Ravens D, forgot that Joe Flacco and the Ravens’ offense were only marginally good.

Now on to The Carolina Sports Guy’s Week 10 NFL picks:
(Home team in CAPS).

Patriots (+3) over COLTS
Underdog pick of the week – Brady and Pats beat the spread and stop the winning streak
Remember last week when I said forget the Saints, the Colts are the best team in the league? I told you they would handle the Texans with ease. Well, I was only partially right. They handled the Texans. It wasn’t easy. And they still look like the best team after the Saints had to come from behind again to beat the Panthers.
Anyone who thinks this streak the Colts have got going isn’t driving Belichick and Brady crazy is well – crazy. Expect a classic Patriot scoring clinic as the Colts fall from the rank of the unbeatens.

Broncos (-3) over REDSKINS
All I needed last week to have a winning record was for the Broncos to cover the spread against the Steelers. What I didn’t need was for Kyle Orton to triple his interception total for the season. He has now thrown four picks on the year. I’ll go out on a limb and say that if he throws four picks vs. Washington, the Broncos still win.

Lions (+16.5) over VIKINGS
This is the NFL. I don’t care how bad you are, you should beat a 16.5-point spread. Even if you’ve only won once in the past two seasons, you beat a 16.5-point spread. Until the Lions are booted out of the league, I’ll take them and a 16.5-point spread.

Saints (-13) over RAMS
Remember when the Rams were what the Saints are now and the Saints were what the Rams are now?
Doesn’t it seem like yesterday when the Rams were The Greatest Show on Turf and Saints’ fans wore bags over their face. I guess change is inevitable.

JETS (-7) over Jaguars
The Jets are 4-4 but have outscored their opponents by 43 points. The Jags are 4-4 and have been outscored by 41 points. With numbers like that, take the home team.

Bengals (+7) over STEELERS
The Steelers continue to bait me. Last week I swore the Broncos would halt their win streak. This week the Steelers are at home against the Bengals and laying a touchdown. A smart man would take the Steelers knowing that the Bengals, even at 6-2, are still the Bengals. Call me crazy but I think the striped cats beat the spread even if they leave Pittsburgh in second place.

Bills (+7) over TITANS
Did you really think I was going to take the Bengals and seven over a 6-2 Pittsburgh team and not take the Bills and seven over a 2-6 Tennessee team? This is the first of three games in this week’s “I bet a Jon and Kate Marathon would out rate this game category.”

PANTHERS (+1.5) over Falcons
For the third straight week I’m picking the Panthers to beat the spread. The other two weeks they were getting double digit points. I’m not sure why – maybe it’s the measly 1.5 points, but I don’t feel as confident this week.

DOLPHINS (-10) over Buccaneers
The Bucs stopped their season-long losing streak last week against the Packers. At this point, I don’t think a win over the Packers is a good measurement of success. The Dolphins should run the ball at will against Tampa Bay and at home they should cover the spread.

Chiefs (+2) over RAIDERS
This game would have been relevant ten years ago. This is the second leg of the “I bet a Jon and Kate Marathon would out rate this game category.”

CARDINALS (-8) over Seahawks
Arizona won by 24 in Seattle in week 6. Seattle counts wins over St. Louis and Detroit among their three victories. Those two facts alone should equal a double digit Cardinals’ win.

Eagles (+1.5) over CHARGERS
Can you believe these two teams are a combined 10-6 and neither team in those 16 games has a 100-yard rusher? The return of Brian Westbrook adds another dimension for the Eagles as they beat the spread on the road.

Ravens (-10) over BROWNS
This game closes out the “I bet a Jon and Kate Marathon would out rate this game category” trifecta for the week. And it’s a Monday night affair. I bet someone in the NFL scheduling department got fired over this one.

The Carolina Sports Guy Guest Pick of the Week by Ted Prestwood
Cowboys (-3) over PACKERS
For the second straight week I’ve given my pal Ted the opportunity to pick against my Underdog pick of the week and for the second straight Sunday he takes a favorite giving a measly three points.

Last week his smugness bit him squarely on the back side as the Bengals waxed the Ravens. This week he takes the Cowboys laying a field goal against a Packers team that just lost as 9-point favorites to winless Tampa Bay.

Thanks for playing, Ted.

Week 9 NFL Picks

My friend Ted and I play a betting game called “Under the Sun.” Basically, the premise is this: we will bet on anything under the sun, which is kind of strange considering a large number of games we bet on occur at night. But, calling it “Under the Moon” would be too cozy and quaint and we’d risk losing serious man points for such language. Of course, using “quaint” in a column about handicapping this week’s NFL games is also an automatic deduction of man points.

When it comes to handicapping games, neither Ted or myself are very adept at picking winners. At least not consistently, which is why money rarely changes hands despite the fact we make multiple bets each week. Now would be a good time to tell you we could never make it betting on games in Vegas and it’s a good think I’ve got this column to support me financially, except for the fact I write this column for free. But, I digress.

Occasionally, we have a payout that is the mother of all payouts such as The Great Steak Bet last spring, a guaranteed payoff for the winning bettor. The Great Steak Bet, not to be confused with the food court favorite The Great Steak & Potato Company, works like this: the bet placed transcends money. It’s about bragging rights. About protecting your turf. It’s about rivalries. Intense, gut-wrenching rivalries. In a bet like The Great Steak Bet, the loser is subjected to some type of embarrassing ritual that will absolutely tear out his insides.

Our Great Steak Bet was actually part of another rare bet – The Patriot Missile Bet. The Patriot Missile Bet is a long-range bet made, at the very least, one full sports season ahead of the actual game date. For example, The Great Steak/Patriot Missile Bet of 2009 was originally made on June 16, 2008. Earlier that day, Ty Lawson, Wayne Ellington and Danny Green withdrew from the 2008 NBA draft and announced their return for one more season at the University of North Carolina.

On that same day, I gave Ted the NCAA field and guaranteed the Tar Heels would leave the Final Four in Detroit as the 2009 National Champions. My reward for The Great Steak/Patriot Missile bet 293 days later: a fat, juicy steak grilled to charcoal perfection and the satisfaction of one more year of bragging rights in the UNC/Duke rivalry.

My pal, Ted getting ready to pay off the 2009 Great Steak Bet

Like Saturday’s UNC-Duke football game, Week 9 of the NFL season features a couple of big rivalries but is also marked by the Dubious Double Digit Point Spread Bet. The Triple D Bet, despite its name, isn’t sexy. In fact, when it comes to the NFL, sportsbooks and bettors hate the Triple D, the Ugly Betty of NFL bets. This year the NFL is full of horrible teams and betting lines have skyrocketed. This week is no different as four games have a Triple D spread, including The Carolina Sports Guy’s Underdog Pick of the Week.
(Home teams in CAPS).

Panthers (+13) over SAINTS
Underdog pick of the week – Panthers not only beat the spread but win outright.
Last week I picked the Panthers, sacked with the Triple D spread as 10-point road dogs to Arizona, to win outright. By Sunday night, I looked like a genius. Louisiana-native Jake Delhomme has never lost to the Saints in his home state and is 8-2 overall vs. New Orleans as a starter. The Panthers may be hampered by the loss of fullbacks Brad Hoover and Tony Fiammetta to injuries, but if they can find someone to open holes for DeAngelo Williams and Jonathan Stewart, they can run on a Saints defense that has given up an average of 150 yards per game the last two weeks.

COLTS (-9) over Texans
Forget the Saints, the Colts are the best team in the NFL. They’ve won 16 of 17 games dating back to last year. Their only loss was an OT game in which they didn’t touch the ball offensively in sudden death OT. The loss of safety Bob Sanders and cornerback Marlin Jackson who were placed on IR this week, caused me to waver on picking the Colts to cover the spread in this one. But, I’m not sold on the Texans who own wins over Tennessee, Oakland and Buffalo.

FALCONS (-10) over Redskins
If the Falcons can manage 13 points, they should cover because the Redskins offense – well, they stink. Jason Campbell complained that the ‘Skins tried to trade him prior to the April draft. Other league GM’s are complaining they had to waste their time telling Daniel Snyder no.

Packers (-9) over BUCCANEERS
How dysfunctional is Tampa Bay? They fired Jon Gruden in the off-season. They hired a coach, Raheem Morris who was promoted to defensive coordinator only days before that. They canned their offensive coordinator – during training camp. And now, after an 0-7 start, they are going old school with their old orange uniforms. Correct me if I’m wrong, but didnt they once go winless wearing that garb? Who says that history repeats itself?

Cardinals (+3) over BEARS
Arizona was embarrassed last week by the Panthers. Meanwhile the Bears were playing a team, the Browns, that are an embarrassment to the entire league. The Bears lose this matchup for the simple reason that this week will be a tough adjustment from playing collegiate-level talent last week.

PATRIOTS (-10) over Dolphins
The Dolphins needed 299 return yards and two 100+ yard kickoff returns last week to beat the Jets. This week on the road against a New England team averaging nearly 35 points per game at home and coming off a bye week, Ginn should at least get lots of kickoff return attempts.

JAGS (-6) over Chiefs
The Chiefs are last in their division. And they play in the same division as the Raiders. I repeat. The Chiefs are last in their division. And they play in the same division as the Raiders.

Lions (+10) over SEAHAWKS
This has to be one of the least appealing games the NFL has seen since the Jags-Chiefs game above.

Titans (+4) over 49ERS
Typically, taking a 1-7 squad going to the West Coast and getting only four points is a recipe for disaster. Against the Niners, I’ll take my chances. At one time, matching Alex Smith vs. Vince Young would have had the NFL folks drooling. Watching these guys now is like watching paint dry. Hey, at least JaMarcus Russell isn’t playing in this game.

Chargers (+4) over GIANTS
There’s no way the Giants can lose again, can they? Oakland has won two games. Anything can happen in this league.

EAGLES (-3) over Cowboys
These two bitter rivals can produce great games. They can also produce a 44-6 laugher like the Eagles runaway win over the Cowboys in the season finale last season with a Dallas playoff spot up for grabs. It looks like Roy Williams is the second coming of Terrell Owens. And that’s not a compliment.

BRONCOS (+3) over Steelers
Color me foolish, but I truly believe in the Broncos. Even after they looked lost against the Ravens last week. The Steelers seem to have righted the ship but I still like the Broncos and the points at Mile High. At the very least, an Eagles/Cowboys Sunday night game followed by the Steelers/Broncos on MNF is a great way to wrap up a week of otherwise ho-hum games for the NFL fan.

The Carolina Sports Guy Guest Pick of the Week by Ted Prestwood
Ravens (-3) over BENGALS
Who better to fill the slot as the first guest prognosticator than my gambling buddy, Ted. About this game Ted says, “the Ravens D is back on track and Cincy is overrated. Ravens win by a TD.”